The term “focus,” as defined by the Merriam-Webster dictionary, conveys the idea of a central locus of activity, attraction, or attention. Considering the given prompt, it becomes abundantly clear that humanity presently grapples with a profound ethical quandary — namely, determining the most judicious course of action and allocation of attention. This challenge becomes more critical due to our unique position as a generation experiencing remarkable progress. We must capitalize on this favorable moment. Therefore, it is suggested that humanity should focus on improving human lives for a longer, healthier future. However, this approach relies on a key assumption: that humanity will continue to thrive. To support this assumption, we can point to compelling evidence. To commence, one may assert that there will invariably be individuals, albeit statistically few, who ardently dedicate themselves to mitigating existential risks.
Take, for instance, the vocation of educators, who frequently choose professions characterized by modest remuneration owing to their unwavering passion for imparting knowledge. While it is acknowledged that this rationale, in isolation, may appear feeble given the scale of the existential risks, it remains an indicator of the persistence of human dedication despite considerable impediments. Notably, when circumstances dictate, as witnessed during the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic, humanity can unite in collective efforts to address existential threats. Historical annals underscore the resilience of humanity when confronted with existential perils. Be it in the preservation of the ozone layer through the Montreal Protocol or the conservation of the world’s botanical diversity in seed banks, humanity has consistently prevailed. Even in the direst hypothetical scenario, where an existential risk materializes in full force, the presence of survivors assures the perpetuation of our species.
Hence, it becomes incumbent upon us to invest our trust in human ingenuity and determination, resolutely endeavoring to avoid bequeathing a bleak future to subsequent generations. In a most dire projection, the worst-case scenario might entail an existential threat eradicating up to 99.999% of the human populace, leaving approximately eight million survivors. Notwithstanding this catastrophic outcome, we must maintain faith in the indomitable spirit of humanity, for history attests to our tenacity in surmounting formidable challenges and adversities, ensuring our ultimate perseverance. It is our solemn duty to ensure that the path we tread does not lead to the most ominous of futures.
Now that we have substantiated the notion of humanity’s enduring existence, it is appropriate to delve into the central issue: the rationale behind not denying existential risks undue priority. The foremost predicament associated with an exclusive focus on existential risk pertains to the manifold ethical quandaries it raises. Syropoulos et al state that future humans hold significantly more value than present humans due to the sheer size of humans. These concerns not only fail to garner widespread support but also risk imbuing the overarching concept of longtermism with an unfavorable and even malevolent aura, a prospect incongruous with our desired future. Furthermore, this approach confronts the significant challenge of needing more immediate support and motivation due to its reliance on the inference of impact through numerical assessments.
Additionally, the excessive focus on existential risks bears the peril of impeding innovation during this era of exponential growth. This predicament is predicated on the fundamental premise that the unknown may harbor potentials even more transformative than artificial intelligence. Speculating about future challenges has the potential to stifle the burgeoning landscape of innovation, a risk underscored by empirical data. Moreover, even under the assumption that humanity is inherently benevolent, the specter of the “bad apple” persists. The influence of a single influential figure exploiting the guise of existential risk prevention could portend the downfall of an entire movement, a grim scenario that history has witnessed on multiple occasions. For example, Malcolm X, although he had good intentions, sing-handedly skewed the perspective of the Civil Rights Movement due to his controversial take on how to achieve justice (Mamiya).
It is also imperative to acknowledge the conceivable prospect that existential risks may not manifest as direly as predicted. These assessments are inherently speculative. Analogous to the unsung heroes who emerge during times of crises, the quiet dedication of existentialists may prove sufficient to avert these potential catastrophes. The efficacy of their endeavors should be judged not solely by quantity but also by the quality of their contributions to the field. However, this is purely a speculative idea.
Furthermore, we must contemplate the uncharted territory we are entering, akin to the realms of science fiction. It is plausible that humanity’s imminent expansion into interplanetary space may significantly mitigate existential risks, rendering them less potent and immediate. When dealing with time’s immense scales as such, it is important to consider possibilities that concern the attention of resources. This transformational advancement, however, can only materialize during the current era of heightened growth and innovation, this is because this future is not as distant as some may assume, the UNSW Newsroom reports that “Mars will be colonized by humans by the year 2050, as long as autonomous mining processes quickly become more commercially viable”
Lastly, the notion of descending into a ceaseless cycle of ameliorating existential risks is rife with the dilemma of perpetually arising novel challenges. As history has aptly illustrated, for example, The Great Depression of the 1930s in the United States resulted from excessive aversion to government intervention and laissez-faire economic policies, showing that an unwavering focus on avoiding problems can lead to devastating consequences (Jaremski and Wheelock). This underscores the imperative of not merely addressing the shadows but also proactively shaping a brighter future.
Now that we have established that existential risks should not be the sole focus, let us explore the reasons for prioritizing the enhancement of human lives in the future. What sets this objective apart from existential risks? The distinction lies in the immediate and tangible benefits it offers. By concentrating our efforts on building a better future, we can attract a larger number of participants. This endeavor must transition from an ethical concept to an actionable plan. People are inclined to contribute to a cause that promises a brighter and more appealing future.
The merits of this approach become apparent when we consider that it yields quick and observable results, potentially within a few decades. To illustrate this point, we can refer to the renowned analogy from Effective Altruism: the “child in a pond” scenario. The experiment involves presenting a scenario to students in which they are asked to consider the moral obligation to rescue a drowning child in a shallow pond. Students unanimously agree that they have an ethical duty to save the child, even if it inconveniences them. The experiment then extends this moral obligation to the context of providing aid to those in need, highlighting that geographical distance and nationality should not diminish the responsibility to help those in danger, even if there are practical concerns about aid distribution (Singer). However, the issue with this idea is that the person doing the action does not receive immediate feedback from helping a person who is on another side of the world. This same principle applies to existential risks and helping future generations, one has more immediate feedback which allows for additional support from a positive feedback loop.
This approach capitalizes on human self-interest, recognizing that most individuals in our society are not inherently good or bad but rather malleable in their beliefs and actions. Therefore, it becomes feasible to effect gradual societal change over time by aligning with the concept of self-interest. Just as the birth of more babies ensures the continuation of our species, the alignment of self-interest with the pursuit of a better future ensures that at least in the long-term of the majority who align with the belief of bettering the lives of future generations, a subcategory will focus on the existential risks, essentially killing two birds with one stone.
Long-term thinking is not limited to envisioning a future millions of years from now but extends to the well-being of the next generation of children. Our primary objective should be to ensure the most significant positive impact. Moreover, this approach becomes increasingly feasible in our generation, as we are the first to possess the tools for creating a sustainable future. Advancements in clean energy and technological progress enable us to reduce our environmental footprint while fostering remarkable development. As one Harvard study found since 1960, new technology development has mitigated about 20 percent of the potential economic damage. Additionally, with prices for clean energy falling lower than ever before, it is clear that our current generation will be able to leave a sufficiently minimal impact on the environment while utilizing this technology boom of the current generation.
Conversely, it is worth noting that the notion that focusing on existential risks will lead to substantial technological advancement assumes a steady rate of change, which is highly improbable given the unpredictable nature of innovation. Furthermore, the current era is marked by rapid advancements and unprecedented progress that should not be squandered. To draw a parallel, human civilization can be likened to a teenager in its life span. While it is crucial to ensure survival and longevity, it is equally imperative to shape a promising future.
By instilling a culture of continuous improvement, we not only guarantee a remarkable life for future generations but also address existential risks as a part of our broader mission. In conclusion, the approach of focusing on the betterment of human lives represents a practical and immediate means of driving positive change, aligning with self-interest, and fostering a culture of ongoing progress. It ensures that we not only unlock the potential for a brighter future but also safeguard our species against existential threats.
There exists a convergence between the imperative of mitigating existential risks and the pursuit of an enhanced quality of life, exemplified by the pressing concerns surrounding climate change and artificial intelligence. Consequently, both issues hold undeniable significance. However, in the pursuit of maximizing the benefits we can provide and engendering widespread participation, it is of paramount importance to demonstrate tangible outcomes. These outcomes can only be realized when we strive to elevate the human condition for the benefit of future generations. Considering this, we must consider why we would relinquish the well-being of our immediate descendants in favor of a more distant posterity. It is through a series of incremental steps that we can aspire to accomplish this ambitious overarching goal.
Works Cited:
Correspondent, Clea Simon Harvard. “Can Tech Save Us from Worst of Climate Change Effects? Doesn’t Look Good.” Harvard Gazette, 17 Nov. 2022, news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/11/can-tech-save-us-from-worst-of-climate-change-effects-doesnt-look-good/.
Jaremski, Matthew, and David Wheelock. The Founding of the Federal Reserve, the Great Depression, and the Evolution of the U.S. Interbank Network. June 2019, www.nber.org/papers/w26034.
Macaskill, William. What We Owe the Future. Hachette Book Group, Inc, 2022.
Mamiya, Lawrence A. “Malcolm X | Biography, Nation of Islam, Assassination, & Facts.” Encyclopædia Britannica, 5 Sept. 2018, www.britannica.com/biography/Malcolm-X.
Martin, Neil. “Mars Settlement Likely by 2050 Says UNSW Expert — but Not at Levels Predicted by Elon Musk.” UNSW Newsroom, 2021, newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/mars-settlement-likely-2050-says-unsw-expert-–-not-levels-predicted-elon-musk#:~:text=Robotic%20mining%20that%20can%20provide,within%20the%20next%2030%20years.&text=Mars%20will%20be%20colonised%20by,quickly%20become%20more%20commercially%20viable.
Singer, Peter. “The Drowning Child and the Expanding Circle.” Forum.effectivealtruism.org, Sept. 2014, forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SwG8Tj9RkG8DzpM4f/the-drowning-child-and-the-expanding-circle.
Syropoulos, Stylianos, et al. Running Head: MORAL RIGHTS of PRESENT and FUTURE PEOPLE 1 Caring for Present and Future Generations Alike: Longtermism and Moral Regard across Temporal and Social Distance. Aug. 2023. Accessed 18 Oct. 2023.
Worldometer. “World Population Clock.” Worldometers, 2023, www.worldometers.info/world-population/.
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